Burst or Bust
We’ve endured the slowest real estate market nationally this year since 1995. As almost always, New York City didn’t completely mirror the national landscape with several market segments holding strong; but as we moved into the final quarter of the year this past month, the damn certainly didn’t break as some hoped with the Fed’s significant interest rate reduction. Despite the lowest mortgage rates we’ve seen in almost two years, the sale pace in Q3 was more in line with a practical reality than the miracle burst that many hoped for.
In Manhattan, signed sales contracts were down 2% year-over-year and down nearly 28% from last quarter. Yet, the luxury market continues to boom as it has since the pandemic, with a 15% increase in contracts signed year-over-year for $10-20M properties. Though despite media [and public!] infatuation with the luxury market, the majority of property sales remained within a $1-3M range. However, the Brooklyn townhouse market boasted strong results last quarter, particularly in central historic neighborhoods, with a 74% increase in contracts signed year-over-year for those $3M and above.
Condo sales performance in both Manhattan and Brooklyn continue a notable market trend, shadowing coop sales. Condo contracts signed in Manhattan were up 25% year-over-year last quarter, while coops were down 21%. In Brooklyn, contracts signed on coops plummeted 47% year-over-year, facing solid townhouse and condo sales.
The slow and low inventory market we’ve experienced for the past several years, isn’t going to experience a miracle shot in the arm, as the trickle of new inventory proved moving into this final quarter of the year. Manhattan saw 15% fewer new listings year-over-year and almost 40% fewer new than last quarter. Likewise, Brooklyn was down 5% year-over-year. The majority of new inventory ranged in price points $1M and more, while the market saw a nearly 61% decrease from last year in new properties ranging $500k and below.
It's easy to pin market results on current events – election year, market uncertainty, global volatility – but the reality is we’ve been moving through this chapter for years, and it was always unlikely to magically turnaround. As we move into November and the final few months of the year, inventory moved downward again. But many sellers are planning their 2025, cautious but optimistic on the market. We are unlikely to see any significant inventory increase as we round out the year, but the very likely trend in 2025 is up, and some sellers will beat the wave in the first quarter of the new year.
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The Numbers
Manhattan Market Activity
Highlighting our market's past 30 days.
Brooklyn Market Activity
Highlighting our market's past 30 days.
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The Properties
Our month's featured listings on the market.
Crown Heights / Brooklyn
Condo
2 Beds / 2 Baths
$785,000
Chelsea / Manhattan
Condo
3 Beds / 4 Baths
$6,795,000
Park Slope / Brooklyn
Condo
3 Beds / 2 Baths
$2,195,000
Central Harlem / Manhattan
Condo
1 Bed / 1 Bath
$385,000
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The Pick
From the cool and eccentric to reserved and irreverent -
Our month’s pick of what's happening in New York City.
If you haven't already, you should:
Luna Luna
Almost 40 years ago, the world’s first art amusement park opened in Hamburg, featuring works by Basquiat, Haring, Lichtenstein, Hockney and others, but was packed in storage and forgotten.
After being rediscovered, "Luna Luna: Forgotten Fantasy" arives to unravel the tale of the world's most fantastical fairground.
November 20, 2024 - January 5, 2025
The Shed
545 West 30th Street, Manhattan